Ijok Aftermath

At last, one of the fiercest by-elections has ended. After 9 days of campaigning where we see the entire might of umno being concentrated in one area, plenty of intimidation and threats plus physical assaults (starting from nomination day itself to the actual election day), PKR lost by 1850 votes to BN. This difference in votes is an increase of 201 votes compared to 2004. However, voter turnout is the highest ever in by-election history at 83.08% (10,195 out of 12,272). This compared to 76.17% (9,411) in 2004. PKR obtained 4,034 votes ( compared to BN's 5,884. Incidentally, both candidates seemed to have obtained about the same number of increased votes (about 500 each). Details of the result can be read here.

Courtesy of Malaysiakini

Frankly speaking, I am a bit disappointed with the results. I was there in the evening of the election day (Sat 28 Apr) and the first sight that greeted me in Ijok was the 2 buses allegedly carrying phantom voters from Perlis being held at the Ijok police station. Apparently there was some fracas between PKR supporters who have received a tip off about the buses and rushed to stop them, and the pemuda umno stormtroopers who of course will try to deny that the buses were ferrying phantom voters and are just cooks from Perlis. You can read more here. My personal belief is that phantom voters do exist and umno has been using them in elections. Since many of the key PKR leaders have been umno leaders before, it is very likely they themselves have utilized the same tactic before when they were running election campaigns for the other side. Ironic as it seems, one needs a "crook" to catch another. Coupled with the fact that the electoral roll is full of literally dead people and other questionable entries (like few hundred names registered to a non-existing address), it is really not inconceivable for people to be brought in from elsewhere, use IC of dead people or what not, and cast their vote in favour of the ruling party. There were also plenty of cases of people who found that somebody else have voted on their behalf. For more details of irregularities (some nothing more than cheating), check out BERSIH which is a coalition calling for clean and fair elections in Malaysia.

After a light dinner I and a few party friends proceeded to the Dewan Orang Ramai Batang Berjuntai to listen to the results being announced. I think it was sometime around 8.40pm when the last polling station results were in and the final result was announced. My first impression listening to the earlier polling station results was that the Chinese areas seem to have again voted for BN. But after going through the breakdown of the official figures, it seems that the Chinese this time has indeed swung their votes to PKR by quite a huge margin compared to 2004. The Indian votes remain strongly BN. The eye opening results to me was that the Malays seem to have swung from their 2004 support for PKR. But upon closer inspection, other than Jaya Setia where BN garnered almost double the votes garnered by PKR, the difference in votes in the other Malay majority areas still remain close. What's more, the spoilt votes in these areas are averaging about half of the majority. Some other eye openers:

- in one of the streams in Indian majority Batang Berjuntai Utara, some 142 of 500 ballot papers given out was never returned. Considering that the majority in this area is 384, one wonders what those 142 missing votes might have been.
- in Pekan Ijok which is a Chinese majority area with few Indians, PKR has gained a lot compared to 2004 and only lost by 21 votes. This compares to Batang Berjuntai Selatan where it is also a Chinese majority area but with a sizeable Indian population and PKR lost by 123 votes.

After digesting the results, and thinking through it for 2 nights, I take the position that it is not all that gloomy for PKR specifically, and the opposition in general. These are the reasons:

- the Chinese voters who reflect a semi-urban to urban outlook (many of them do work in the Klang Valley and return home during the weekend) do seem be discontented with the existing socio-political climate, and are showing it through their votes. As long as the climate do not change significantly for the better between now and the coming General Election, most likely we will see continuing support from these group for the opposition's message and cause.
- considering the amount of money and various projects which have been promised (remains to be seen if they will ever be delivered), and the full might and resources of umno pouring into the area (especially in the Malay majority areas), they don't seem to have made much headway. Only in Jaya Setia where there have been cases of PKR operation centers being forced to close down overnight have they seem to gain back the support of the voters. In all the other Malay majority areas the difference in votes is slim and with spoilt votes making up some half of the difference. I take heart that the Malay voters in such a semi-urban setting do seem to understand that such crass vote-buying is to be abhorred in their culture, and they seem to understand the big picture issues being delivered by PKR.
- the level of violence and intimidation in this closely fought Ijok by-election, which is almost unheard of in Machap, shows the real fear of umno and gang that they could lose this seat. It is also telling that despite proddings from journalists, the umno top leaders have consistently refused to predict the level of win. This is very unlike Machap or Batu Talam where they were so confident to the point of throwing majority figures around. Despite whatever they try to say, their actions show very clearly that they see PKR as their threat. All the more so when they realize PKR, and to a certain extent PAS, can get the crucial votes from the Malays who are the traditional supporters of umno. It is encouraging, in a sense, to see that such politics of threats and intimidation do not seem to work that well this time to swing more Malay and Chinese votes over to BN.
- the Indians in estates and such cannot be faulted to vote for BN considering the dire straits they're in. As I have mentioned before in my earlier post, vote buying in the form of RM100 or RM200 given to the mostly destitute families are really life savers, and being in most cases simple folks they can only be most grateful to this seemingly charitable act. In Ladang Tuan Mee, there were allegations some 200 sewing machines were given out to families. I, for one, would not blame them for feeling immensely grateful to the folks who gave these out, and in turn voted for them. The only way out of this vicious trap is perhaps through education. But that would mean working among them outside of the usual election campaigning periods because it is patently clear that during election times, it is virtually impossible for any other groups to get near them considering the way MIC "shields" these people.

There is reason to be optimistic considering the points above. The discontment of urban and semi-urban voters with the present administration does seem real and being translated to votes (at least in the case of Ijok). The opposition parties must take heart of this observation and continue to work their messages through to these voters. The types of messages, and delivery of them, must be fine tuned further in preparation for the coming General Election which will be very near indeed (I am confident it will be called between Nov 07 and Mar 08). The most important thing is that PKR, DAP and PAS must work out something that will give voters an undeniable impression that they are united in going against BN, and have clear policies and agenda for a better Malaysia. The sticky point remains to be the relationship between DAP and PAS. But for the sake of the country, that really have to be resolved or worked out soon. If the opposition can make clear breakthroughs in the various urban and semi-urban areas, it is already a good first step of a longer journey to slowly convince, persuade and educate the rural voters. Even Tun Dr Ismail believed (The Reluctant Politician, p. 160) that the process of truly uniting the various races in Malaysia can happen, but not overnight. But 50 years have passed since Tunku Abdul Rahman first led Malayans to shout "Merdeka". PKR, DAP, and PAS really should take up Tun Dr Ismail's challenge now and slowly convince and persuade Malaysians of all walks in life that a new, truly united Malaysia where all will be seen as Bangsa Malaysia is possible and can be made real. After all, the Ijok results of 2004 and 2007 upon closer inspection do give that glimmer of hope.

(James Wong Wing On has a similar kind of assessment as well. You could read it here in Malaysiakini.)